by Govt Likely to Increase Petrol and Diesel Prices in Pakistan
As of June 14, 2025, the Pakistani government is preparing to raise petrol and diesel prices for the upcoming fortnight, reflecting global market pressures and domestic economic strategies.
🔼 Why Prices Are Likely to Rise
- Spike in international crude
The Israel–Iran missile exchanges have rattled global oil markets, with Brent crude jumping around 7 % in early June. This translates into a steep rise in import costs for Pakistan . - OGRA’s recommendations
Based on global trends, the Oil & Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) has advised a hike in ex-depot fuel prices from June 16
📈 Projected Price Hike
| Fuel Type | Current (ex-depot) | Expected Increase | From June 16 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol | ₹252.63/litre | +₹1 to +₹4.38 | ₹253.63–258.01 |
| Diesel | ₹254.64/litre | +₹5.02 | ₹259.66 |
- Most reports expect petrol to rise modestly (+₹1), but some forecasts suggest up to +₹4.38/litre, depending on commodity market movement .
- Diesel is forecast to go up by around ₹5/litre, reflecting its heavier weight in import costs and inflation .
📅 Timeline & Decision Making
- The government’s fortnightly price revision is scheduled every other month, with June’s new rates set to be confirmed on June 15, taking effect June 16.
- A 16-member high-level committee, headed by the Finance Minister and including officials from OGRA, PSO, SBP, and others, will assess global prices, forex rates, petroleum futures, and inflation impacts before finalizing figures .
💰 Fiscal Impact & Tax Composition
- Despite zero GST on petroleum, consumers pay roughly ₹94/litre in combined duties: a Petroleum Development Levy (
₹77–78), customs duty (₹16), and distributor margins (~₹17) . - The 2025–26 budget also introduced a carbon levy of ₹2.5/litre, further downstreaming into price hikes .
- These levies serve dual aims: revenue mobilization—fueling subsidies and development—and environmental regulation.
🚚 Wider Economic Effects
- Inflation wave: Diesel’s rise will hit heavy transport, agriculture, and freight hardest, inflating food and goods prices .
- Revenue shortfall risk: The government faces a potential Rs 1.16 trillion Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) target. But with price hikes curbing fuel consumption, achieving this is uncertain.
🤔 What’s Next?
- June 15 – OGRA submits final fuel-rate recommendations.
- June 16 onward – New petrol & diesel prices take effect.
- If global oil remains volatile, this price-adjustment cycle will intensify inflationary and fiscal pressures.
- The carbon levy and possible future PDL hikes (toward ₹90+/litre) indicate further potential increases.
💡 For Consumers
- Plan ahead: Expect to pay more at the pump from June 16—₹1–₹5 extra per litre.
- Budget for rising costs: Household transport, food, and goods are likely to get more expensive.
- Monitor market updates: Keep an eye on OGRA bulletins and announcements around June 15 for definitive rates.
Final Thoughts
This fuel price review comes at a fragile moment for Pakistan’s economy. While the hikes respond to real international cost pressures, they compound inflation and impact everyday consumers. The government’s challenge: balancing fiscal needs with social stability.
