by Dollar Likely to Go Past Rs. 300 By June Next Year — Economic Storm Clouds Gather Over Pakistan
As Pakistan navigates one of its most turbulent economic periods in recent memory, financial experts and currency market analysts are raising red flags about the future of the Pakistani rupee (PKR). With mounting debt, stubborn inflation, and an unstable political environment, projections suggest that the US dollar could cross the Rs. 300 mark by June next year — a psychological and economic threshold that could send shockwaves through the country’s already fragile financial system.
The Current State of the Rupee
The rupee has been under immense pressure over the past few years, depreciating steadily due to structural weaknesses in the economy. As of mid-2025, the exchange rate hovers around Rs. 285–290 per dollar in the interbank market. The open market, however, often tells a different story, with rates climbing closer to Rs. 295, especially during periods of import demand, fuel shortages, or delays in external financing.
This trajectory has led to increased speculation that the rupee might breach the Rs. 300 mark by June 2026, unless significant corrective measures are taken.
Why the Dollar Is Expected to Surge Further
- IMF Conditions and Debt Servicing
Pakistan is currently under another Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While the deal has brought some short-term relief, the austerity measures, high interest rates, and increased taxation have slowed down economic activity. Additionally, the country has to repay billions of dollars in external debt in the coming fiscal year — a situation that puts more demand on the US dollar, driving its value up. - Depleting Foreign Reserves
As of now, foreign exchange reserves are barely enough to cover two months of imports, and any hiccup in inflows — whether from remittances, exports, or international loans — sends the rupee into a tailspin. A weak balance of payments position means the State Bank of Pakistan has limited capacity to defend the rupee. - Political Uncertainty
The upcoming budget, provincial elections, and whispers of political instability have all added fuel to market volatility. Investors, both local and foreign, are reluctant to commit to long-term positions. Confidence is key in currency markets, and political turmoil often erodes that confidence rapidly. - Inflation and Import Dependency
With inflation hovering around 20% year-on-year, and Pakistan’s reliance on imported oil, machinery, and consumer goods showing no signs of easing, the dollar continues to gain ground. The weaker the rupee, the more expensive imports become — creating a vicious cycle.
Impact on the Common Citizen
If the dollar does cross Rs. 300, the impact on the average Pakistani household would be immense. Here’s how:
- Petrol and Diesel Prices would skyrocket, causing a domino effect on transport and food costs.
- Electricity and Gas Tariffs, already unaffordable for many, would likely be revised upward again.
- Imported Medicines, Smartphones, Cars, and Electronics would become significantly more expensive.
- Small Businesses relying on imported materials may be forced to shut down or increase prices.
- Savings Erosion: With the rupee losing value, purchasing power continues to drop, especially for salaried individuals and pensioners.
What Needs to Be Done?
Experts warn that the time for cosmetic measures is over. If Pakistan wants to avoid a full-blown currency crisis, it must implement structural reforms and policy changes such as:
- Broadening the tax net to increase revenue without overburdening the existing taxpayers.
- Curtailing non-essential imports and boosting exports through incentives and infrastructure upgrades.
- Tightening monetary policy to reduce inflation without completely choking off growth.
- Reviving investor confidence by ensuring political stability and transparent governance.
- Reducing reliance on external loans, and instead focusing on domestic productivity.
Regional Comparison: How Bad Is It?
Compared to other South Asian nations like India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, Pakistan’s rupee has seen one of the fastest depreciation rates over the last five years. While these countries have faced challenges, their currency policies, export-driven strategies, and stable leadership have helped them absorb external shocks more effectively.
Conclusion: A Tipping Point Approaching
If the dollar crosses Rs. 300 by June 2026, it won’t just be a number — it will represent a tipping point in Pakistan’s economic narrative. The nation would face increased poverty, shrinking middle class, and further erosion of public trust in financial institutions. However, this forecast also serves as an opportunity to act decisively.
The writing is on the wall. Pakistan must make bold, smart, and urgent choices. Otherwise, the economy may not just weaken — it could unravel.
